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A Year in Review Part 3 – HPI
In 2019, house prices were top of mind for many Canadians. At the beginning of the year, house prices had been in a slump. However, by the end, we began to see a turnaround.
The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ tracks home prices across the country. Every month, it uses land registry data to represent that rate of change in house prices in 11 key Canadian markets: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Quebec and Halifax.
Here is what changed in 2019:
- January 2019
At the start of the year, the House Price Index (HPI) retreated 0.1% from December of 2018 and it was the fifth consecutive month without a rise. Notably, this was the longest such run without a rise since March of 2013.
Weakness was concentrated mostly in the westernmost markets of Canada — Calgary, Vancouver, and Edmonton. The indexes for Montreal and Quebec City, on the other hand, reached an all-time high in January.
Read the full report: https://housepriceindex.ca/2019/02/january2019/
- February 2019
In February, the HPI was down 0.4% from January. This was the largest February decline in 19 hears of history (with the exception of the recession year of 2009).
The western markets again saw a decline. However, Montreal continued its strength, rising 0.4% from January. The Halifax index rose, too, up 0.3% from the previous month.
Read the full report: https://housepriceindex.ca/2019/03/february2019/
- March 2019
In March, the HPI declined for the sixth month in a row – this time down 0.3% from February. Apart from the recession year of 2009, it was the first March decline in the 20 years of index history.
Despite the downtrends, the majority of markets actually saw a year-over-year gain and the composite index was up 1.5% from a year earlier.
Read the full report: https://housepriceindex.ca/2019/04/march2019/
- April 2019
The April index broke the downtrend — it stayed flat from the previous month. However, it was the first April in 21 years of index history in which home prices showed no rise (besides the recession year of 2009).
Six of the 11 metropolitan markets saw declines, including Montreal and Halifax, which had previously shown growth. Calgary, in particular, saw the downtrend as it reached its 10th consecutive month without a rise. For Vancouver, it was the ninth consecutive month.
The composite index was up 1.1% year-over-year.
Read the full report: https://housepriceindex.ca/2019/05/april2019/
- May 2019
In May, the HPI was up for the first time in nine months – it rose 0.5%. However, if seasonally adjusted the index would have been down 0.4% on the month. In addition, it was the smallest rise for a month of May in 21 years of index history.
The indexes for Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax, Ottawa-Gatineau, and Hamilton would have remained positive after season adjustment.
Read the full report: https://housepriceindex.ca/2019/06/may2019/
- June 2019
The June index continued to rise, with an increase of 0.8% from the previous month. However, like May, if the index had been seasonally adjusted, it would have retreated by 0.5%. It was also on the small side for a month of June – the 21-year average is 1.2%.
The Vancouver and Calgary market indexes continued to decline, while Toronto, Hamilton, and Ottawa-Gatineau saw the third consecutive month of gains. Montreal also continued its sustained performance — its index rose for 13 out of the previous 15 months.
Read the full report: https://housepriceindex.ca/2019/07/june2019/
- July 2019
Midway through the year, in July, the House Price Index was up 0.7% from the previous month but, again, this was only due to seasonal pressures. If those were taken out, the index would have retreated by 0.1%.
Additionally, it was the smallest 12-month rise in almost 10 years, since November of 2009. It was pulled down by three markets in particular: Vancouver (down 6.2% from a year earlier), Calgary (down 3.1% from 2018), and Edmonton (down 2.8%).
However, other markets were showing larger advances from the previous year, including Ottawa-Gatineau (up 6.0%), Montreal (up 5.8%), and Hamilton (up 5.1%). Toronto, too, was up year-over-year by 3.2%.
Read the full report: https://housepriceindex.ca/2019/08/july2019/
- August 2019
In August, the Index rose 0.4% from the month earlier. However, unlike May, June, and July, it would have been up even if seasonally adjusted. The recent run of months that showed an underlying downtrend after correction for seasonal pressure had come to an end.
Seven of the 11 metropolitan markets were up over the month; it was the fifth consecutive rise for Toronto, Hamilton, Ottawa-Gatineau, and Victoria, and a fourth for Montreal, Winnipeg, and Halifax.
Yet the western markets were still feeling the downtrend, and Quebec City saw its first decline after three consecutive monthly rises.
Read the full report: https://housepriceindex.ca/2019/09/august2019/
- September 2019
In September, the Index rose 0.1% from the month before. Like August, it would have risen even if seasonally adjusted. However, the gain was below the 21-year average of 0.2%.
Quebec City and Vancouver continued to decline, and the Victoria index dropped as well after a run of five straight increases. Edmonton and Halifax stayed flat. Toronto, Hamilton, Calgary, Ottawa-Gatineau, and Montreal all rose month-over-month.
Year-over-year, the 12-month advance of the composite index was at 0.7%, which was well below inflation. Nevertheless, it was the second consecutive acceleration of the 12-month rise.
September signalled the start of an uptrend that would carry through the rest of the year.
Read the full report: https://housepriceindex.ca/2019/10/september2019/
- October 2019
In October, the Index began the fourth quarter of 2019 with a dip of 0.1% from September. However, the monthly decline was in line with the last 10 Octobers, in five of which the index retreated. Additionally, if seasonal pressure was removed, October would have been the third consecutive month of an underlying uptrend.
Edmonton, Winnipeg, Toronto, Hamilton, Calgary, and Montreal all retreated. Yet for Vancouver, it was the first monthly rise in 15 months. This was consistent with a strong revival of home sales since August.
Ottawa-Gatineau, Victoria, and Halifax also saw increases.
For the year-over-year index, this was the third consecutive acceleration.
Read the full report: https://housepriceindex.ca/2019/11/october2019/
- November 2019
In November, the Index regained ground with a rise of 0.2% from the previous month — a good showing for the month of November, as in seven of the last 10 Novembers, the Index declined.
Vancouver saw the second rise in a row. Montreal and Ottawa also saw a sustained increase, with the former rising 17 times in the past 20 months and the latter seeing a cumulative gain of 15.4% in the same time.
Year-over-year the composite index gained 1.4%, braked by the three largest western markets.
Read the full report: https://housepriceindex.ca/2019/12/november2019/
- December 2019
The final House Price Index of 2019 saw vigour return, except in the Prairies. The Index rose 0.2% from the previous month, and 1.9% year-over-year.
However, Calgary declined 0.6% from November 2019, while Edmonton declined 0.2% and Winnipeg dropped 0.1%. Going into 2020, the indexes for Victoria and Vancouver remained flat, while the central and eastern markets of Ottawa-Gatineau, Toronto, Montreal, Hamilton, Quebec City, and Halifax all saw gains.
Over the 2019 year, the composite index grew fastest from May to August, with smaller variations later in the year. December was the fifth straight monthly rise, with seasonal factors taken out. The underlying trend of the index was a return of strength in the second half of the year after a shaky first half.
Read the full report: https://housepriceindex.ca/2020/01/december2019/
2020 Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ Reports
Find more house price analysis and in-depth reports from the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.
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